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Instructors: Prof. Dr. Hermann Held
Event type:
Interactive class
Displayed in timetable as:
Hours per week:
3
Credits:
6,0
Language of instruction:
English
Min. | Max. participants:
- | 45
Comments/contents:
The Lecture gives an introduction on decision under uncertainty in the climate policy context. It comprises concepts as well as numerical material from coupled climate-economic models. At this instance, Integrated Assessment Models used for informing policy makers on investment options are introduced. This comprises models utilized in our Research Unit.
Learning objectives:
At the conclusion of the course the students will have the knowledge on the underlying normative assumptions and resulting conclusion on competing concepts how to deal with uncertainty in the climate context. They would further be able to solve corresponding conceptual models by themselves. Finally they would have an overview on structural properties of and numerical approaches to solve the corresponding Integrated Assessment Models. Students are given the chance to test their level of understanding by giving a short presentation on a specialised subject. Outstanding oral contributions would be acknowledged through a further upgrade.
Didactic concept:
Attendance during lectures is not mandatory. However it is recommended because multi-disciplinary contents will be presented at a level of aggregation that is taylored to the needs of integrated assessment modelling of the climate problem. In that sense it is even harder to be substituted by an excellent text book than more disciplinarily oriented lectures.
Content:
1. Overview on the climate problem
2. Key uncertain factors (natural science / techno-economics)
3. Decision under uncertainty (deterministic / probabilistic / Knightian / robust methods)
4. Application to the climate problem
5. Integrated Assessment Modelling
The course is planned in hybrid format.
Literature:
- IPCC AR5 WG3 ( http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg3/ ), Ch2.
- IPCC AR6 WG3 ( https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-3/ )
- Christian Gollier: The economics of risk & time, MIT Press, 2001.
- R. Perman, Y. Ma, J. McGilvray and M. Common (2003), Natural Resource and Environmental Economics.
- Itzhak Gilboa: Theory of Decision under Uncertainty
+ weekly lit.
Additional examination information:
The assessment of this course consists of
• Assignment problems in terms of voluntary 15min presentations through which the mark for the final exam can be upgraded by 1/3 grade in case of a successful exam.
• Assignment problems in terms of voluntary ad-hoc oral contributions through which the mark for the final exam can be upgraded by 1/3 grade in case of a successful exam (best 1-3 only).
• A final exam .
TAKE-HOME EXAM:
Time to process the exam: 90 min
Time frame in which the exam can be completed:
First exam: 10 February 2023, 3:15 pm-4:45 pm
Second exam: 24 March 2023, 3:15 pm-4:45 pm
The examiner of your course will provide information about the hand out of examination tasks / assignments and their submission.
To be admitted for the exam, a quota of 40% from 5 rounds of homework exercises needs to be reached. Per round, 1 point can be generated. To achive 1 point in a round it is sufficent to submit a perfect solution for one exercise out of a menu of several exercises. In case solutions for several exercises are submitted in one round, fractions of one point per exercise add up to at max. 1 point per round. The exercises strongly mimic the questions to be expected in the exam.
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